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Rates Hold Lows After Stronger PPI, Stocks 1-Wk Highs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures trading sideways after quietly extending session lows in late trade, intermediates to bonds lead move off midmorning levels as curves rebounded: 3M10Y +6.674 at -118.025, 2Y10Y -.244 at -72.742 vs. -76.154 low.
  • Current TYZ3 futures at 109.24 (-8.5) still above initial technical support of 109-03 (Sep 13 low) followed by 109-00 (round number support).
  • No obvious headline driver for the drift lower in the second half (though markets await formal annc of a UAW strike, not to mention the impending shutdown as UIS Gov expected to run out of capital at the end of the month.
  • Knock-on factors: stronger than expected PPI and lower than expected weekly claims reversed a post-ECB rate hike bid earlier (rally tied to policy statement that was less hawkish than expected).
  • Stocks are grinding to new two week highs, ignoring for the moment projected rate hike increase in early 2024. Meanwhile, the US$ gains strength (BBDXY +3.4 to 1253.99), and crude prices forge higher: WTI +1.89 at 90.41.
  • Friday focus: Import/Export Price index, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and UofM Sentiment.
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