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Rates on Hold at 7.75%, As Expected

PERU
  • The Peruvian central bank kept policy unchanged at 7.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, alongside expectations.
  • The bank retained the view that the hiking cycle is not necessarily over, and that inflation is to fall to the target band by Q4 of this year.
  • Notably, the bank dropped the reference to recent "social events", meaning the outlook may have stabilised slightly since the prior meeting.
  • Pantheon write that the caution will start to fade soon, and sees the statement as the first step to opening the door for rate cuts in Q3. They see the main rate ending the year at around to 6.5%. But El Niño, over the coming months, could easily delay the start of the easing cycle to Q4.
  • Citi note that The central bank chief has warned recently against cutting interest rates too soon.
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