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STIR

Various measures of short-term rates have been retracing earlier moves as the US comes in.

  • Fed Funds futures are back to pricing in 26bps for the March meeting (from brief high of 28bps) and 100bps for Dec (104.6bps).
  • Similarly, EDM2 has seen the highest volumes today and is back near yesterday’s levels under muted trade, albeit 3 ticks below Friday’s settlement (currently 99.230).
  • Further out, 2Y cash Tsys have firmed as yields fall to 1.012% from an earlier high of 1.0563%, yet remain +4.5bps from Fri close and above 1% for the first time since Feb’20.
  • Ahead, heavy corporate earnings schedule plus surveys ahead with Empire Mfg (0830ET), the first main business survey for Jan, before the NAHB market index for Jan (1000ET).

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