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Free AccessRates Quietly Rebound, Yld Curves Hold 22 Year Inverted Lows
Tsy futures drifting near modest session highs after the bell - wide range on decent volume (TYU2>1.6M) after rebounding steadily off midmorning lows. Yield curves still near inverted lows not seen since late 2000: 2s10s currently -6.205 ast -36.662 vs. -37.202 low.
- Hawkish Fed messaging continues: StL Fed Bullard on CNBC earlier echoing Daly and Mester's messaging: Fed job "nowhere near" complete in reining in inflation while needing months of "convincing evidence" that infl has peaked.
- That said, SF Fed Daly clarified/softened her view slightly saying 50bp hike in Sep a "reasonable thing to do." Mkts appeared to ignore MN Fed Kashkari comments after the close: inflation fight a bigger priority than recession, while market bets on rate cuts are very unlikely.
- Meanwhile, US Tsy annc fourth consecutive reduction in its quarterly sales of longer-term debt as borrowing needs diminished and signaled a pause going forward. Reductions in short-end auction sizes was not widely expected (2s, 3s), the rest was more or less in line by the looks of it.
- Data on tap for Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Initial Jobless Claims (260k est), Continuing Claims (1.383M est). Larger focus on Friday's July employment report (+250k est vs. +372K prior).
- Current cross assets: spot Gold rebounds +$5.39 (0.31%) at $1765.35, Crude weaker: WTI -$3.57 (-3.78%) at $90.81, stocks near recent session highs ESU2 +72.5 points (1.77%) at 4160.75.
- Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 4.3bps at 3.0937%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 2.8599%, 10-Yr is down 1.6bps at 2.7319%, and 30-Yr is down 4.8bps at 2.9581%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.