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Rates Rebound Post-ECB Hike With Less Hawkish Tones

US TSY FUTURES
  • Fast two-way following the 25bp hike from the ECB, Tsy futures initially extended session lows (TYZ3 to 109-28.5) before rebounding to 110-05 (+4.5) as messaging appears less hawkish than anticipated.
  • "Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target."
  • Short end lagging in lead-up to PPI, Retail Sales, Wkly Claims data.
  • Technical recovery from yesterday’s low is a short-term bullish development. The strong daily close highlights a hammer candle formation - a reversal signal. If correct, yesterday’s price action suggests scope for a correction near-term. First resistance to watch is 110-09, the 20-day EMA.
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