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Rates Should Gradually Return To Pre Pandemic Levels (Sura)

POLAND
  • The European Union is reassessing how aggressively to approach the rule-of-law crisis in Poland after leaders including Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Emmanuel Macron called for restraint (BBG).
  • At 10.30am (London time), Polish central banker Lukasz Hardt will speak in a panel in Sopot.
  • Inflationary pressures continue to remain elevated in the CEE region, increasing the odds for another hike by the NBP next month (November 3).
  • Earlier this morning, NBP member Rafal Sura said that interest rates should gradually return to pre pandemic levels and that it is unlikely that inflation will return within its target rate in the next 12 months.
  • Forward rates are pricing in further rates hikes in the coming meetings. FRA 3Mx6M is currently trading 90bps above the Wibor 3M, implying that the market is expecting three to four 25bps hikes by January.
  • Yesterday, September retail sales came in slightly higher than expected at 11.1% YoY (vs. 10.4%), up from 10.7% the previous month.
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