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Rating Affirmed By S&P, Analysts Increase CPI Forecasts In Citi Survey

MEXICO
  • Mexico's long-term foreign currency debt rating was affirmed by S&P at BBB, the second-lowest investment grade score. Outlook remains negative.
    • "Mexico is poised to close 2021 with a 5.8% rebound in GDP, which leaves a still sizable output gap coming out of the pandemic-induced recession in an economy that has had a track record of subpar GDP growth."
    • "As President Lopez Obrador heads into the second half of his six-year term, we assume continuation of cautious macroeconomic management that has limited the rise in debt and deficits, with net general government debt holding steady at about 46% of GDP over the next three years."
    • "The outlook remains negative, indicating the risk of a downgrade over the coming year due to more pronounced and lasting contingent liabilities associated with managing complex fiscal challenges at Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) and Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE), or from uncertainties in the business climate that would keep growth subdued."
  • Citi published results of biweekly analysts’ survey in email:
    • 2021 year-end inflation raised to 7.30% from 7.00%
    • 2022 year-end inflation raised to 4.00% from 3.95%
    • 2021 GDP cut to 5.70% from 5.90%
    • 2022 GDP held at 2.90%
  • USDMXN’s technical corrective pullback has been extending amid the firmer risk sentiment in global markets. This has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind and attention is on immediate support at 20.9790, the Nov 3 high.
  • The focus will be on tomorrow’s CPI data where annual inflation is expected to rise to 7.24% for November.
  • Local news: Pemex could end up spending about $1.6 billion to take over Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Deer Park refinery, more than twice the price announced in May.
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