/RATINGS: Citi On The Impending Triple Rating Review For Austria

Citi note that “tomorrow, Austria’s AA+ rating will be reviewed by each of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch.”

• “Of these, Moody’s and S&P have Austria on a stable outlook and our forecasts don’t see any rating change over coming years.”
• “However, Fitch put Austria on a negative outlook last October given Austria’s large reliance on Russian gas. This remains a risk but not any bigger than at the height of the gas crisis.”
• “Elsewhere, Fitch’s latest update in March also pointed to Austria’s high level of debt and limited headroom at the AA+ rating to absorb further shocks. However, Fitch expects Austria’s debt/GDP ratio to continue to decline in coming years.”
• “Net, there seems little reason for Fitch to downgrade Austria in the near term. However, given that there is still risk from next year’s election with a far-right party potentially entering the government, the negative outlook might persist for now.”