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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
In the eye of the global banking crisis storm, AU STIR not only moved to price a pause from the RBA at the April meeting but also sounded the end of the tightening cycle.
- Since mid-March, RBA-dated OIS pricing for the April meeting has fluctuated around a no-change decision with current pricing attaching only a 16% chance of a 25bp hike.
- More noteworthy recently, however, has been the firming in May meeting pricing, which hit its highest level since 15 March.
- The cumulative tightening over the April and May meetings is now at 9bp versus -8bp on 20 March.
- With global banking concerns receding, the market appears to be starting to hedge itself against the possibility of an unfavourable Q1 CPI print on 26 April.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: May Meeting Pricing
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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