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STIR
RBA Dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings ahead of the release of the RBA Minutes for the February meeting.
- A cumulative 37bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- Given the retention of the tightening bias in the accompanying statement to the February 6 decision, the market will be looking closely at whether a 25bp hike was discussed and the tone of the discussion.
- If there wasn’t a discussion of whether further tightening was needed, then the impact of the tightening bias in the meeting statement, “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”, is likely to be diluted.
- With changes made to the format of the meeting statement and Statement on Monetary Policy, there could also be changes to the presentation of the minutes.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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