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RBA Dated OIS Slightly Softer Going Into Q4 CPI Release

STIR

Today, the local calendar sees the Q4 CPI print. This will be a crucial input into next week's RBA meeting deliberations. Bloomberg consensus expects headline CPI to print +0.8% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.4% prior. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to show +0.9% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.2% prior.

  • Most trimmed mean forecasts are around 0.8-0.9%/4.2-4.4%. The full range is between 0.8% and 1.2% q/q and 4.1-4.7% y/y. NAB expects 0.8/4.2%, CBA 0.9/4.3% and ANZ & Westpac 0.9/4.4%.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings, with a cumulative 44bps of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday

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Today, the local calendar sees the Q4 CPI print. This will be a crucial input into next week's RBA meeting deliberations. Bloomberg consensus expects headline CPI to print +0.8% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.4% prior. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to show +0.9% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.2% prior.

  • Most trimmed mean forecasts are around 0.8-0.9%/4.2-4.4%. The full range is between 0.8% and 1.2% q/q and 4.1-4.7% y/y. NAB expects 0.8/4.2%, CBA 0.9/4.3% and ANZ & Westpac 0.9/4.4%.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings, with a cumulative 44bps of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday

Keep reading...Show less