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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Softer After Trimmed Mean CPI Declines

STIR
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Headline CPI rose 2.3% y/y (estimate +2.2%) in November versus +2.1% in October. Trimmed mean CPI rose 3.2% y/y versus +3.5% in October.

  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across contracts after the data.
  • A 25bp rate cut is back to being more than fully priced by April (110%), with the probability of a February cut standing at 61%.
  • Before the data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had slipped to 98%, with the February cut probability at 57%.
  • For additional context, 32bps of easing was priced for April just a week ago.

 

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Headline CPI rose 2.3% y/y (estimate +2.2%) in November versus +2.1% in October. Trimmed mean CPI rose 3.2% y/y versus +3.5% in October.

  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across contracts after the data.
  • A 25bp rate cut is back to being more than fully priced by April (110%), with the probability of a February cut standing at 61%.
  • Before the data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had slipped to 98%, with the February cut probability at 57%.
  • For additional context, 32bps of easing was priced for April just a week ago.

 

Keep reading...Show less