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Free AccessRBA Dated OIS Terminal Rate Expectations Soften With RBA’s Removal Of Tightening Bias
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer across meetings today after yesterday’s RBA Policy Decision.
- Given that OIS pricing aligned with the unanimous consensus among Bloomberg analysts, expecting a status quo decision yesterday, minimal market reaction in front meetings was anticipated.
- Likewise, year-end easing expectations have only slightly softened to 38bps compared to 36bps prior to the decision.
- Where there has been a notable reaction has been in terminal rate expectations. Before yesterday's meeting, the anticipated terminal rate stood at the effective cash rate of 4.32%. However, following the RBA's decision to remove the explicit tightening bias, there has been a softening of 5 basis points to 4.27%.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Expected Terminal Rate Versus Expected Cash Rate End-24
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.