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RBA Dated OIS Terminal Rate Expectations Soften With RBA’s Removal Of Tightening Bias

STIR

RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer across meetings today after yesterday’s RBA Policy Decision.

  • Given that OIS pricing aligned with the unanimous consensus among Bloomberg analysts, expecting a status quo decision yesterday, minimal market reaction in front meetings was anticipated.
  • Likewise, year-end easing expectations have only slightly softened to 38bps compared to 36bps prior to the decision.
  • Where there has been a notable reaction has been in terminal rate expectations. Before yesterday's meeting, the anticipated terminal rate stood at the effective cash rate of 4.32%. However, following the RBA's decision to remove the explicit tightening bias, there has been a softening of 5 basis points to 4.27%.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Expected Terminal Rate Versus Expected Cash Rate End-24



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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