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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Following a light few days, the calendar heats up again this week with the scheduled release of February Retail Sales (Tue) and Monthly CPI (Wed).
- After Q4 GDP revealed weak domestic demand on the back of higher interest rates and higher inflation, the market will be looking to see how much of the strong +1.9% M/M in January is unwound in February (- 4.0% M/M in December).
- On the inflation front, BBG consensus is expecting another slowing in the Y/Y rate to 7.2% from 7.4% in January and 8.4% in December. Its is important to note however that the series can be volatile month to month given not all components are updated monthly. On a monthly basis, the monthly indicator printed -0.4% in January versus +1.6% in December.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bp softer on the day across meetings beyond April. April meeting pricing remains around flat.
- Notwithstanding the ongoing sensitivity to banking headlines, the market appears vulnerable to upside surprises from the local data releases this week with 34bp of easing priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Friday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Figure 2: Cash Rate & RBA Dated OIS (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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