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RBA Focus Of The Week; 25bp Hike Expected, Forecasts On Friday

AUSTRALIA

The focus of the week in Australia is tomorrow’s RBA meeting where another 25bp hike to 3.35% is expected. A number of analysts believe that 50bp will be seriously considered but no one in the Bloomberg Survey is expecting the Board to hike that much.

  • The RBA is likely to give an indication of its forecasts in its meeting statement on Tuesday but the details will be published in its Statement on Monetary Policy released on Friday. Headline inflation forecasts are not expected to move much but trimmed mean inflation could be revised higher.
  • Today we have the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge for January. Last month it rose 5.9% y/y for the second consecutive month, the highest since the series began.
  • Monday also sees Q4 retail sales which includes the inflation adjusted measure. With the monthly nominal series rising 0.9% q/q in Q4, real retail sales are expected to fall 0.5%, which is in line with our estimates using a retail price proxy.
  • On Tuesday trade data for December are published. The trade surplus is expected to narrow marginally to $12.4bn from $13.2bn in November.
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