RBA MonPol decision due at the bottom.....>

AUSTRALIA: RBA MonPol decision due at the bottom of the hour.

- The RBA will almost certainly leave its cash rate on hold at 1.50%. The Bank

is unlikely to be swayed by domestic political uncertainty and the risk of wider

mortgage rate rises, instead focusing on econ. data, including a dip in the

unemp. rate, in effect maintaining its glass half full approach. Chances are

that the Bank will reiterate that the next move in the cash rate will likely be

up in both the minutes from the meeting & Lowe's speech. Last month's SoMP gave

the RBA the chance to update its econ. forecasts, with no large deviations from

the prior outlook apparent.

- The IB strip is only pricing in 1bp of tightening by the end of June '18, at

yesterday's settlement 8bp of tightening was priced in through 2019, or a 32%

chance of 25bp hike by the end of next year.