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RBA Pause May Bring Inflation Expectations Lower But Petrol Prices Up

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations measure for April prints today. Last month it moderated to 5% from 5.1% but has found it difficult to break below the 5% mark. It hasn’t been below since the start of 2022. Over the last year, inflation expectations have had a high correlation with petrol prices. The April average to date is up 1.9% m/m after March fell 1.5%, which may prevent inflation expectations falling further, but the pause in rate hikes and the RBA stating that inflation has peaked may help it to move lower.


Australia MI inflation expectations vs petrol prices

Source: MNI - Market News/Australian Institute of Petroleum/Refinitiv

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