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AUSSIE BONDS
YM is pushing above the immediate recent range in early Sydney trade, with little in the way of notable news flow witnessed. We would suggest this move could represent the following:
- Reaction to the extension away from the recent highs in the ACGB Apr '24/Nov '24 yield spread, with the tightening back from wides perhaps a result of some of the more hawkish views surrounding the RBA being pared back a little, or at least showing some signs of concern on the back of the recent round of lockdowns imposed in Australia (most notably in Sydney). Market consensus still expects the RBA WILL NOT roll over its 3-Year yield targeting scheme to ACGB Nov '24 from ACGB Apr '24 next week. A reminder that our policy team's latest RBA insight piece flagged their understanding that "fresh Covid-19 outbreaks and the slow pace of Australia's vaccine rollout are having more of an impact on the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected when it made its most recent forecasts in May, weighing on its calculations as it considers an extension of its yield guidance."
Fig. 1: ACGB Apr '24/Nov '24 Yield Spread
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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