RBA To Drive AUD Today

The AUDUSD continued rising overnight and is now trading around 0.6516. The AUD was the third best performer in the G10 (+1.8%) behind NOK and NZD. This meant that it made further gains against the JPY to be 94.18 this morning - above last week’s highs.

• The gains in AUDUSD were mainly driven by USD weakness (DXY -0.8% from intraday high), as the ISM printed weaker than expected, especially the employment component. AUDUSD remains in a downtrend and the first resistance level is 0.6550 (Sep 26 high). The initial support and bear trigger is 0.6363.
• Equity markets were stronger overnight and oil rose over 4% on the back of the weaker dollar. There is also talk that OPEC+ could cut production +1mpbd. Copper prices recovered somewhat overnight and aluminium was higher on supply concerns. Iron ore picked up to just under $96.
• Today the RBA meets and is expected to hike rates 50bp to 2.85%. The accompanying statement is likely to be scrutinised for signals that the pace of tightening might slow going forward. Before that August building approvals are projected to bounce back and the loan values should decline further. Tonight there are a number of Fed speakers as well as ECB President Lagarde.