RBA’s Bullock & Q2 GDP Highlights Of A Busy Week In Australia

The highlights of a busy week are likely to be RBA Governor Bullock’s appearances on Thursday and Q2 GDP on Wednesday. Data since the August 6 meeting are unlikely to have changed the RBA’s thinking, and if anything the strong July employment data would have confirmed its higher-for-longer stance. A particularly weak GDP print or one showing strong public demand is likely to prompt additional questions for Bullock the next day.

• Governor Bullock speaks on Thursday at the Anika Foundation lunch starting at 1200 AEST and then a pre-recorded fireside chat is aired at 1900 AEST at the Women in Banking & Finance Awards.
• Further components that go into the GDP release are published on Monday and Tuesday. Q2 inventories print with the company profit data on Monday with a 0.1% q/q drop forecast and profits flat. The net export contribution, forecast to be +0.5%, published with Q2 balance of payments is on Tuesday, as well as government finance statistics.
• Before these releases, Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 GDP after Q1’s 0.1% driving a slowdown to 0.9% y/y from 1.1%, in line with the RBA’s expectations.
• August CoreLogic home values rose 0.5% m/m after 0.5% in July. The data on July building approvals on Monday are likely to show supply remains constrained. Home loan data on Friday is forecast to rise 1% m/m after 1.3%.
• Preliminary August Judo Bank PMIs showed some improvement and the final reads are published on Monday for manufacturing and Wednesday for composite/services.
• Monday also sees the August Melbourne Institute inflation gauge and ANZ-Indeed jobs ads.
• On Tuesday, the current account deficit is expected to be little changed at $5bn after Q1 unexpectedly returned to deficits. July trade data is released on Thursday. The surplus has narrowed recently due to lower commodity prices.