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RBC Above Consensus For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • RBC forecast nonfarm payrolls growth of 260k (consensus 200k), with a consistent story as they see “health care and social assistance leading the gains, followed by government and leisure & hospitality”.
  • “But there are signs other sectors are starting to pick back up. The past two months saw the share of gains in the three aforementioned sectors fall to nearly 40% from an average of 80% between June and November. Beyond those sectors, we see business spending providing a tailwind.”
  • “However, the growing divergence between the pace of employment growth in payrolls compared to the household employment estimates is worth keeping an eye on. The y/y pace of household growth slowed notably in the past two months, while payrolls continued to gain above pre-Covid trends.”
  • “There can be many reasons for the divergence, but the household survey is prone to sampling issues and greater volatility throughout the year, so we continue to place greater weight on the payroll data to assess labor market strength.”
  • They see the u/e rate steady at 3.7%.
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