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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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RBC see Wednesday's "larger auction size increases as a harbinger of more supply to come", with monthly nominal coupon supply reaching $317B by May 2024 (upped about $20B from their pre-Refunding week preview).
- They say it's notable Treasury "didn't show any shyness in boosting longer-term issuance .... We note this because we had previously received some pushback that Treasury may go lighter on coupons in favor of heavier bill issuance – still high O/N RRP balances, long-term yields potentially being near cycle highs, and political considerations around the 2024 election have all been cited." They see Bills returning to the 15-20% range of marketable debt by roughly mid-2024.
TD: Now forecasting a peak $301B in nominal coupon issuance by May 2024, representing a $22B increase from their pre-Refunding expectations, TD believes that "risks to higher deficits in the next few years will keep Treasury increasing coupon auction sizes in the next two quarters, albeit at a gradual pace".
Source: RBC
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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