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RBC Expecting Another 50bps Hike on May 5

CZECHIA
  • RBC expects the CNB to deliver another 50bps hike to 5.50% (in line w/ consensus).
  • The mixed messages from CNB members pose a downside risk to RBC view, though simultaneously, a weaker CZK, slower fiscal consolidation, and the better than expected Q1 GDP print pose upside risks, including to RBC terminal rate estimate.
  • The focus in the forward guidance will be on how much more space to hike (if any) and how soon rate cuts may come.
  • On the former, RBC has been expecting the CNB’s terminal rate to come in at 5.50%.
  • On the latter, the CNB is unlikely to signal that cuts will be soon, even if the new forecasts continue to show rate cuts this year.
  • Meanwhile, President Zeman noted over the weekend that he is close to choosing the next CNB Governor (Rusnok’s term expires at end-June).

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