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RBC On Q1 Household Debt

CANADA
  • The combination of higher inflation and debt payments already soaked up all of the growth in household after-tax incomes last year, and looks likely to do so again in 2023.
  • The household debt service ratio is set to hit record levels, potentially already in Q2 as the lagged impact of higher interest rates continues to filter through to household borrowing costs.
  • The economy's resilient performance early in 2023 and sticky core inflation pressures pushed the BoC to hike in June for the first time since January, but headwinds from higher interest rates continue to build and we continue to expect a softer labour market and weaker GDP data over 2H23.

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