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(M2) Correction Extends


Late Session Rebound


(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

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  • Scotiabank see headline CPI at +0.5% M/M (cons 0.7) and the annual rate up from 6.2% to 6.8% Y/Y. They see core at +0.4% M/M (cons 0.5) with annual inflation up from 4.6% to 4.9% Y/Y.
  • It’s below consensus but still a solid print as “the easing of Delta variant cases from earlier peaks could continue to put upward pressure upon prices”.
  • Used vehicles are a big driver again: “they were up by 5% m/m seasonally adjusted according to the Manheim index and 9.3% m/m according to JD Power (NSA)”. That could add at least 0.2pps to M/M inflation rates.
  • “November is typically a month with little seasonal price pressure that would impact month-ago NSA prices as input into the year-over-year inflation rate”.
  • RBC expect more modest sequential gains this month in both headline (+0.6% M/M) and core (+0.4% M/M).
  • “The breadth of gains will again be broad-based, with the key underlying drivers of transportation and housing again doing much of the heavy lifting in the core”.

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