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CANADA: RBC See Sharper Rise In U/E Rate As Participation Recovers

CANADA
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  • RBC expect Canadian employment growth of 10k with the unemployment rate rising two tenths to 6.7%.
  • “Canada has steadily posted job growth, but not fast enough to keep up with growth in the labour force as the population continues to rise rapidly.”
  • “The past two months were an exception—the unemployment rate ticked lower for the first time since January in September and held at that level in October—but largely because of a sharp pullback in the share of, particularly younger, workers giving up their job search.”
  • “The unemployment rate is still running almost 1 percentage point above year-ago levels and hiring demand has continued to slow with job openings falling.”
  • They point to the latest SEPH showing job openings still down 18% Y/Y for September, and forecast the labour force participation rate to partially reverse the 0.3pp decline over the last two months. 
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  • RBC expect Canadian employment growth of 10k with the unemployment rate rising two tenths to 6.7%.
  • “Canada has steadily posted job growth, but not fast enough to keep up with growth in the labour force as the population continues to rise rapidly.”
  • “The past two months were an exception—the unemployment rate ticked lower for the first time since January in September and held at that level in October—but largely because of a sharp pullback in the share of, particularly younger, workers giving up their job search.”
  • “The unemployment rate is still running almost 1 percentage point above year-ago levels and hiring demand has continued to slow with job openings falling.”
  • They point to the latest SEPH showing job openings still down 18% Y/Y for September, and forecast the labour force participation rate to partially reverse the 0.3pp decline over the last two months.