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RBC Sees "Soft" 0.4% Core CPI Reading In September

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

RBC sees September CPI rising 0.4% M/M on both the headline and core measures, with the former being a "firm" and the latter a "soft" 0.4% (i.e. unrounded).

  • "Energy prices are expected to provide a boost to the headline (and will likely again next month as natural gas prices tend to feed into CPI with about a one month lag), but an even bigger lift is expected from the transportation component, specifically used car prices, which are again accelerating after a respite over the prior few months.
  • RBC is among analysts looking for shelter prices to continue to maintain upside pressure for the foreseeable future: "housing should again see a sturdy gain [in September] – something we expect over the coming months too."
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