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RBC Trade Of The Week: Long AUD/SEK

FOREX

RBC think “risk-reward favours being long AUD into the RBA meeting. Economists are almost exactly evenly split between a 25bp hike and unch. rates and market pricing is similar.”

  • “Our economists favour a 25bp hike, but even if the RBA leaves rates unchanged, expectations for a hike will likely just roll to the August meeting and we see little scope for the 4.06% terminal rate currently priced to move lower.”
  • “We fund a long AUD position in SEK, keeping the trade risk-neutral. Domestic risk in Sweden is limited this week, but short SEK suits our medium-term view that SEK’s status as low-yielding risky asset will drive grinding underperformance as it has for the last 18 months.”
  • They issued the long AUD/SEK recommendation at SEK7.1832, with a target of SEK7.32 and a stop set at SEK7.12.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities

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