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RBNZ Dated OIS Gives A Hike Today A 15% Chance

STIR

Today RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings, ahead of the RBNZ policy decision meeting (0100 GMT / 1200 NZT).

  • The market expects a firmly on-hold outcome, leaving the focus on the accompanying updated forecasts, statement and press conference (see our full preview here).
  • Notably, the market assigns a 15% probability to a 25bp hike at today’s policy meeting.
  • Terminal OCR expectations remain steady at 5.54%. It is noteworthy that the recent peak in the expected terminal rate, recorded at 5.72%, occurred in the lead-up to the Q3 CPI release in mid-October. Subsequently, expectations have undergone a gradual softening, amounting to nearly 20bps.
  • Looking ahead, the market fully prices in a 25bp rate cut by August 2024.

Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing (%)



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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