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STIR
Today RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings, ahead of the RBNZ policy decision meeting (0100 GMT / 1200 NZT).
- The market expects a firmly on-hold outcome, leaving the focus on the accompanying updated forecasts, statement and press conference (see our full preview here).
- Notably, the market assigns a 15% probability to a 25bp hike at today’s policy meeting.
- Terminal OCR expectations remain steady at 5.54%. It is noteworthy that the recent peak in the expected terminal rate, recorded at 5.72%, occurred in the lead-up to the Q3 CPI release in mid-October. Subsequently, expectations have undergone a gradual softening, amounting to nearly 20bps.
- Looking ahead, the market fully prices in a 25bp rate cut by August 2024.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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