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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
At +1.2% Q/Q and +6.9% Y/Y, Q1 CPI came in below both the RBNZ (+1.8% & +7.3%) and market (+1.5% & +6.9%) expectations. Whilst the RBNZ will gain some comfort from the downside surprise, inflation is still running well above the target range. Moreover, the RBNZ will be acutely aware that non-tradeable inflation made a fresh Y/Y cycle high in Q1.
- RBNZ dated OIS has softened 3-9bp across meetings with 2024 meetings leading.
- 20bp of tightening priced for the May meeting versus 24bp pre-data.
- Terminal OCR expectations fall to 5.51% versus 5.57% before the data.
- Easing expectations for Feb-24, off the expected terminal OCR, are currently 37bp.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS: Post-Data Vs. Pre-Data
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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