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RBNZ Dated OIS Year-End Easing Expectations Look Stretched

STIR

RBNZ dated OIS pricing has remained relatively stable out to November but shows a 2-4bps softening for 2025 meetings today.

  • Today’s moves have resulted in a softening across meetings beyond August, ranging from 24 to 65bps compared to pre-RBNZ decision levels.
  • A 55% chance of a rate cut in August is currently priced in, with a cumulative 90% chance of a cut by October, before expectations jump sharply to three 25 bps cuts by year-end.


Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Post-RBNZ Versus Pre-RBNZ Levels (%)



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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