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NEW ZEALAND: RBNZ’s Core Measure Likely To Moderate From Q3’s 3.4%

NEW ZEALAND
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Q4 headline inflation was significantly impacted by some volatile components thus making underlying measures important to gauge the trend. The RBNZ releases its sector factor model estimates today at 1500 NZDT (1300 AEDT) and core is likely to moderate further towards the target band from its Q3 reading of 3.4% y/y. Non-tradeables inflation has a 77% correlation with the RBNZ’s core measure and the two have moved very closely since 2021. The former remained elevated but moderated 0.4pp to 4.5% y/y in Q4, lowest since Q3 2021, signalling a further easing in underlying inflation when the RBNZ data is released. 

NZ CPI y/y%

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Q4 headline inflation was significantly impacted by some volatile components thus making underlying measures important to gauge the trend. The RBNZ releases its sector factor model estimates today at 1500 NZDT (1300 AEDT) and core is likely to moderate further towards the target band from its Q3 reading of 3.4% y/y. Non-tradeables inflation has a 77% correlation with the RBNZ’s core measure and the two have moved very closely since 2021. The former remained elevated but moderated 0.4pp to 4.5% y/y in Q4, lowest since Q3 2021, signalling a further easing in underlying inflation when the RBNZ data is released. 

NZ CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less