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Real Consumption Trend Subdued Despite Monthly Bounce

US DATA
  • Nominal personal spending was stronger than expected in Jan (1.8% vs 1.4) and incomes weaker (0.6% vs 1.0), with the savings rate rising further to 4.7% in Jan from 4% in Q4 and a low of 2.7% in June (albeit prone to sizeable revisions).
  • Stronger inflation meant that real spending came in as expected, bouncing strongly after yesterday’s surprise downward revision with the 1.1% M/M the strongest since Mar’21.
  • Trend consumption growth remains subdued despite the bounce though, with the 0.6% in 3M/3M annualized terms the softest since February.
  • Disposable income growth certainly supports stronger consumption growth. It was further boosted by a drop in personal current taxes in Jan (which we’re looking into) but the trend was strong prior to that, accelerating from 4.8% to 5.8% on the same 3M/3M basis.

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