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Free AccessReal Consumption Trend Subdued Despite Monthly Bounce
- Nominal personal spending was stronger than expected in Jan (1.8% vs 1.4) and incomes weaker (0.6% vs 1.0), with the savings rate rising further to 4.7% in Jan from 4% in Q4 and a low of 2.7% in June (albeit prone to sizeable revisions).
- Stronger inflation meant that real spending came in as expected, bouncing strongly after yesterday’s surprise downward revision with the 1.1% M/M the strongest since Mar’21.
- Trend consumption growth remains subdued despite the bounce though, with the 0.6% in 3M/3M annualized terms the softest since February.
- Disposable income growth certainly supports stronger consumption growth. It was further boosted by a drop in personal current taxes in Jan (which we’re looking into) but the trend was strong prior to that, accelerating from 4.8% to 5.8% on the same 3M/3M basis.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.