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Real GDP Revised Higher On Domestic Demand, So Too GDI

US DATA
  • Real GDP was revised up again from 2.9% to 3.24% annualized in the third Q3 release.
  • It was led by personal consumption (from 1.7 to 2.26%) and less so private non-residential investment in positive signs for final domestic demand, offset partly by an even larger than first thought drag from inventories (-1.4pps vs -1.2pps prior).
  • That said final domestic demand is still relatively tepid at 1.5% annualized after 0.8% averaged in 1H22, weighed heavily by sliding residential investment.
  • The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees only a modest slowing to 2.7% in Q4.
  • After a string of downward revisions, GDI also finally sees an upward revision, currently seen +0.8% annualized in Q3 (initially 0.3), which leaves a GDP-GDI average growth rate of 2% annualized in Q3 after -0.5% through 1H22.

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