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Real Yields Slide Whilst Breakevens Keep To Pre-Taper Levels

US TSYS
  • The acceleration of the day’s rally in Treasuries since the US came in has been heavily carried out in real terms which could help limit risk-off sentiment.
  • With those growth fears at the forefront, moves have been led by the belly with 5Y nominal yields -8bps since Friday’s close as real yields slide -7.5bps to +17bps.
  • Putting the size of recent moves into perspective, 5Y real yields have fallen 35bps since last week but still remain some 20bps higher than pre-US CPI levels from Jun 10, when the large upside surprise helped spark the Fed hiking 75bps.
  • The 5Y breakeven has accordingly dipped -0.5bps to 2.63%, off last week’s post-ISM lows of 2.52% but back at pre-taper levels.

US 5y nominal yield (white), real yield (green) and breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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