REALITY CHECK Part 2: Job Seekers Still Rule Roost in August

--Recruiters, Employers More Creative in Talent Hunt

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - Job seekers ruled the roost in August, much to employers'

chagrin, and this trend is likely to continue into year-end, according to

recruiters interviewed by MNI for this month's REALITY CHECK on the U.S. job

market. 

     "We haven't noticed any slowdown. We've noticed still a high momentum of

needs. Definitely, companies are anxious to find talent," said Janis Petrini,

business owner and manager of the Grand Rapid Express franchise in Michigan.

     "Our area is heavily geared towards office furniture, automotive, food

manufacturing, and all of them are very busy," she said. 

     Despite the low 3.2% (BLS June 2017) unemployment rate in the area, there

is concern about the labor force participation rate and the fact that some

potential workers still choose to stay at home for various reasons, Petrini

said. 

     Making a living wage, transportation and child care are "all factors that

someone has to consider before they make a decision to come back to work," she

said.

     "Right now, they are looking at it and thinking I don't see how I am going

to do it," Petrini said.

     Deb Gray, franchise owner of an Express office in Pittsburgh, saw more job

seekers getting hired in August than in July "because we are reaching further." 

     "We're just really being targeted in our searches - it doesn't mean it's

any easier to find them," she said. 

     Continuing the trend of prior months, August saw another three-point

increase in the "show rate" of potential candidates, i.e. job seekers coming to

her office for help finding employment. 

     In terms of staffing levels, "Our greatest demand is mid-to-senior," Gray

said. 

     Employers "are asking for and we are able to find" mid-to-senior level

workers, but at the entry level, "workers are still scarce," she said.

     On the employment trend going forward, Gray saw hiring as "more steady than

not" into year-end.

     However, she stressed, "I think it's tied a little bit more uniquely to

what's going on in the oil and gas industry here." 

     Preet Kuar, Executive Recruiter and Business Development Manager at Pacific

Staffing in Sacramento, CA saw "a lot of direct hire activity" in August. 

     Clients "are grabbing talent. They are not waiting for three-four rounds of

interviews," as in the past, she said. 

     Instead, any delay now often is on the part of candidate, as prospective

new hires assess the offer, compare other offers and counter with their own

demands, Kuar said.

     "Because this might be the second time looking in the 'good' job market,"

these candidates feel they can "dictate their needs," she said. 

     In the past, Kuar would ask employers what the "deal breaker" would be for

a given position. Now, "more and more" she has to ask the prospective candidate

"what's going to be a deal breaker if I get this offer?" 

While still "educating both sides," Kuar and her team of recruiters are spending

more effort on "managing" prospective hires.

     "The closing is taking a lot more energy out of the recruiters," Kuar said.

     MNI spoke with Peter Kitchin, Executive Director at Michael Page of New

York, which deals primarily with filling permanent professional positions. About

80% of Michael Page's placements are at the mid-level, with a salary range

between $75,000 and $150,000. 

     "August in a nutshell has been encouraging both in terms of job postings

that we see from existing clients as well as potential clients," he said. 

     Kitchin saw no "real substantive change" between August and July, with

summer hiring continuing the theme of "positive trending."

     "I'm fully expecting and anticipating that we will go into a very strong

September and October period, really adding to the momentum that we are seeing

in the market place," he said. 

     The July-August period in 2017 was "much stronger and more consistent" than

the same two months in 2016, he said. 

     There was "consistency across all industries," in terms of hiring needs,

with notable hiring in "virtual commerce," which is "replacing the hiring that

we see in more traditional retail sectors," Kitchin said. 

     In terms of industry demand, Daniel Morgan, owner of two Express franchises

in the Birmingham, AL area, noted that "anything transportation" was especially

hot in August, with the steel industry also seeing solid demand for workers. 

     Whether deliveries, trucking or any other kind of transportation in any

sector, employers tell him, "If you can find me somebody, I can put them to work

tomorrow," Morgan said.  

     On the U.S. hiring trend going forward this year, "I just don't see a

slowdown coming," he said. 

     "We have seen steady increases even through August; I don't see it slowing

down in December based on the feedback we're getting," Morgan said. 

     August U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released Friday Sept. 1 at 8:30

a.m. ET.

     MNI's median estimate looks for 180,000 for headline non-farm payrolls,

with a range of 160,000 to 220,000. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at

4.3% and average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.2%.

     Editor's Note: Reality Check stories report on sentiment among business

people and their trade associations. They are intended to complement and

anticipate economic data. If you are currently an MNI subscriber and want to be

on the Reality Check email-distribution list, contact sales@marketnews.com

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

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