REALITY CHECK Part 2: July US Hiring Rock Solid, No Doldrums

--Talent Crunch Still A Factor

--Hiring Pushed Forward To Summer From Fall

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - The U.S. job market remained rock solid in July, flying in

the face of traditional summer doldrums, according to recruiters interviewed by

MNI for this month's REALITY CHECK on the U.S. job market. 

     July hiring was "slightly up from June," driven largely by anticipation of

needs for August and the fall, said Kurt Trost, Talent Acquisition Manager at

Manpower. Trost is responsible for the Mid-Atlantic region from Washington DC to

Florida.

     There was initial sluggishness at the start of the month because of the

July 4th holiday, but the hiring pace soon picked up, he said. 

     "In comparison to last year, we are seeing an earlier ramp. People are

preparing earlier, because talent is a little harder to find," Trost said.

     The recent hiring pattern is not "a one-month trend, a two-month trend, a

three-month trend," but rather "a continuous, slow, steady increase so far in

2017," he said.

     "Traditionally, in the summer months we get a little slow. So the fact we

have stayed steady is a really great sign for us going into Q4," Trost said. 

     On the heels of "robust" hiring in June, Eugene Lupario chief executive at

SVS Group in Oakland, CA, said, "There's a lot of job orders in the areas we are

servicing and we haven't seen a lot of slowdown yet."

     In terms of industry and staffing levels, "across the board, the numbers

are either steady or up," he said. 

     One client hoped to be fully staffed by year-end 2017 when, in reality, the

timeframe will likely be "this time next year," he said.

     "The talent is just not that available - it's super competitive," Lupario

said. 

     On specific industry needs, Preet Kuar, Executive Recruiter and Business

Development Manager at Pacific Staffing in Sacramento, CA, said, "HR, IT and

accounting has been really busy," with a "lot more positions coming in," while

"healthcare stayed the same." 

     "We had a very good July," she said.

     Last month, it was even harder to find good candidates for short-term

positions, because the "quality candidates" are "already working," Kuar said.  

     Some clients were concerned about losing employees to Amazon, which is in

the process of hiring 1,500 workers for its fulfillment center in Sacramento. 

     "Amazon is doing a really good job of marketing their company now, they

have employer branding out there," Kuar said. 

     The internet retailer held a Amazon Jobs Fair Wednesday to fill more than

50,000 jobs at 10 fulfillment centers across the United States.

     MNI spoke with several representatives of the Oklahoma-based Express

Employment Professionals, a leading privately held staffing firm with more with

more than 770 franchise locations.

     Hiring needs were "holding steady" in July, said Janis Petrini, business

owner and manager of the Grand Rapid Express franchise in Michigan, "Companies

are still needing people." 

     "I think the competition for talent is starting to play a bit of a role,"

she said.

     Some of the need for new workers is driven by actual company expansion,

"but some of the need is for the fact that they could be losing them to another

company because of the competitiveness for talent right now," she said.

     "I think it's a combination of both," Petrini said.

     Anne Woods, franchise owner at the Express office in Covina/Santa Fe

Springs, CA, said employers "are still not getting all the people they need.

That is still there, but it's kind of like they feel it won't be that way soon."

     Hiring needs in July were about the same as in June, but there was more

"pushback on salaries" from employers than in prior months, she said. See

REALITY CHECK Part 1 on the Main Wire at 10:18 a.m. ET for details. 

     The job hiring that would normally take place later in the year, has been

moved forward to the summer, noted John Calabrese, owner of the Mohawk Valley

Express office in Utica, NY. 

     "In our neck of the woods here, we normally see a slowdown in the months of

July and August, particularly in the manufacturing sectors, but this year, we

have not," he said. 

     "So, we are actually seeing now a pick-up in just about all of our

manufacturing clients that are looking to gear up and having trouble to keep up

with production," he said, "So, they need a lot of workers." 

     Similarly, seasonal service type jobs in distribution and warehousing, that

would normally be posted in the fall, are being pushed forward. The same for the

human resource staffing positions that typically deal with healthcare open

enrollment plans each year, Calabrese said.  

     He saw "huge growth" month over month for mid-level and entry-level

positions. 

     For these two staffing levels, "July was the biggest month we've had all

year," in terms of positions added, Calabrese said. 

     Editor's Note: Reality Check stories report on sentiment among business

people and their trade associations. They are intended to complement and

anticipate economic data.

     U.S. non-farm payroll data for July will be released Friday August 4 at

8:30 a.m. ET.

     MNI's median estimate is 181,000 for headline July non-farm payrolls, with

a range of 170,000 to 220,000. The unemployment rate is seen at 4.3% vs 4.4%

last and average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3%. Due to a large 0.4% rise

in hourly earnings in July 2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to

be trimmed.

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

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