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Rebounding as Tsys Take Cues From EGBs, Focus on Wed CPI, FOMC

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are firmer, little off late overnight highs amid ongoing political uncertainty in France. OAT spread to Bunds wider amid speculation France President Macron is considering resignation after calling for snap election following weekend parliamentary elections. EGB moves moderated after rumors denied.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently trading +10 at 109-13 vs. 109-14 overnight high, 109-02.5 low during early Asia hours.
  • Friday's sharp sell-off post-NFP continues to undermine the recent bullish theme, highlighting a potential bearish reversal. The TYU4 contract breached both the 50- and 20-day EMA, while continued decline would strengthen a bearish threat at at 108-27.5 (June 3 low). Key short-term resistance is Friday’s high of 110-21, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.
  • Cash yields are currently lower: 5s -.0496 at 4.4324, 10s -.0433 at 4.4237%, 30s -.0336 at 4.5622%, while curves are running mixed: 2s10s -0.118 at -41.668, 5s30s +1.599 at 12.806.
  • Today's US data was limited to NFIB Small Business Optimism, reported 90.5 vs. 89.7 prior. The two day FOMC kicks off deliberations at 1000ET. Main focus is on Wednesday's May CPI and FOMC policy announcement.
  • US Treasury auctions on tap today: $46B 52W and $60B 42D CMB bills at 1130ET, $59B 10Y Note reopen (91282CKQ3) at 1300ET.
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