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Rebounding Oil Not Supportive of NOK

SCANDIS

Rebounding oil prices (on the back of an upward revision to the IEA's oil demand forecast and continued commitments from Russia/Saudi to support the market with production cuts) have not yet fed through to NOK, which is broadly unchanged against the G10 today (CAD fares similarly).

  • Statistics Norway's house price index for Q3 showed a -1.1% Q/Q fall (vs 1.2% prior) as rate hikes feed into the sector.
  • SEK is slightly outperforming the G10, with USDSEK, EURSEK and NOKSEK all currently ~0.1-0.2% lower on the day. Swedish inflation expectations fell in October (1Y ahead CPIF seen at 2.7% Y/Y vs 3.1% prior), but did not move markets.
  • A finish lower today would mark the third consecutive move lower for NOKSEK, with parity eyed psychologically and the Oct 6 low at 0.9995 the bear trigger.
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