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Rebounds Amid Equity Stability & Oversold Technicals


USD/THB is down close to 0.75% in the first part of trade, last tracking near 34.34. The pair got close to the 100-day EMA on Friday (34.66/67), while the 50-day EMA sits near 34.025. The baht is the best performer within the Asian FX space so far today, although part of this is catch up with the weaker USD trend post Friday's onshore close.

  • The USD/THB RSI got close to 70 on Friday (moves above this level on the RSI are considered overbought conditions), so that may have encouraged some profit taking flows in long USD/THB positions.
  • Fundamentally, there isn't much in the way of key data/event risks this week (Q4 loan growth data slowed to 2.1% from 5.3% in Q3). Late on Friday, FX reserves data showed a down move, but this is consistent with a firmer USD level in recent weeks (headline last at $222.6bn).
  • In coming months, the focus will shift to the election, which is expected to be held in May. The daughter of former leader Thaksin (who remains in exile) is seen as the current front runner (see this link for more details).
  • In the equity space, the SET index is seeing some support sub 1650, the index is up 0.20% do far today, while offshore investors added modestly to local equities last week, the first weekly inflow since the last week of Jan.

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