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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS/SUPPLY
A quick recap of expectations for today's refunding announcement (from our preview) at 0830ET/1230UK include:
- MNI expectations for new coupon sizes in table below (roughly accords with sell-side consensus)
- Increases to next week's 3Y/30Y/10Y expected to see amount of $114B (vs $103B in Aug)
- Risks are seen to the downside overall, if so would be considered positive for Treasuries
- 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y expectations are very mixed. Slower-than-expected increases to these is the main risk, potentially inducing curve flattening. As-expected outcome would lean modestly steeper
- More details on buyback program set to start in 2024
- On bills: 6-week CMB to be made a benchmark, composition of bills/coupons eyed, esp on bills as % of marketable debt
- TBAC financing recommendations for the following quarter and any change in Treasury guidance about "further gradual increases" to issue sizes ahead, particularly in light of market conditions (both docments will be available on this site)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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