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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Recession Risk Remains Highest For H1 2023, Unlikely In H2
Despite the banking turmoil in March, which also reached Europe through Credit Suisse, the probability of a recession in 6-months time remained low and well below the benchmark 50%. Given that the estimates were above 50% through H2 2022, the biggest risk of a euro area recession remains in H1 of this year. The IMF doesn’t expect in its April projections that the euro area as a whole will fall into recession but is forecasting negative growth in Germany.
- Our March estimate assumes that annual M3 growth in March remained steady at February’s 2.9% and that the number of unemployed continued to ease at -2.2% y/y.
- The equation from 1985 indicates a 27.5% probability of a recession in September, which was up slightly from February’s 18.7%. This is down from our preliminary estimate at the time of the CS troubles, as markets stabilised following central bank intervention and the announcement that UBS would buy CS.
- The 1998-estimation shows a 30.6% recession probability, down from February’s 43.8%. The downward trend in the 6-month change in the number of unemployed has been putting downward pressure on the recession estimate.
- Econometric estimates are only estimates and not projections.
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
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Why MNI
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