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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The bottom line: the Conference Board eyes a recession starting around end-2022, lasting through mid-2023.
- That's an earlier start (and end) than eyed by consensus which mostly sees a (mild) recession beginning mid-to-late 2023.
- The 6-month annualized change in the LEI is flashing up warning signals: the chart below shows the current rate of change (-6.3%) as the x-axis; this has historically been a reliable recession signal, with no "false positives".
- An earlier recession would -at the very least - call into question whether the terminal rate can get to 5% by mid-2023 as is currently priced in.
Source: Conference Board, NBER
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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