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Recessionary Philly Fed Headline And Prices But Some Improvements Elsewhere

  • The Philly Fed business outlook index surprisingly weakened further in April, falling from -23.2 to -31.3 (cons -19.3), only lower in Apr/May’20 and before that 2008/09.
  • The decline goes firmly against the surprise bounce in the (far more volatile) Empire State survey that helps push yields higher at the time.
  • Price components stood out on the weak side: current prices received falling from 7.9 to -3.3 saw the first negative since the pandemic and aside from -0.2 in Jun'19 were last seen in 2016.
  • Some improvements elsewhere though, with new orders (from -28.2 to -22.7) and shipments (from -25.4 to -7.3), and the 6-mth ahead general business outlook also pushed up from -8 to -1.5. The latter sees a growing disconnect between current conditions and forward expectations - see charts.

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