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Record Trade Deficit In August, Exports Slow, PMI back to 2020 Levels

SOUTH KOREA

August trade figures for South Korea were dominated by a record trade deficit of just under -$9.5bbn. This was wider than market expectations of -$8.158bn. The trend in the trade balance remains an adverse one for the won, see the chart below.

  • It's also becoming more of a focus point for policy makers. Yesterday the authorities announced 351t won in export financing, a record amount. This comes amid fears of a further slowdown in export growth.
  • At the same time the authorities will look to source other commodities (outside of LNG, oil) to lower energy costs. Whilst metrics for Korea's terms of trade have moved away from recent lows (see the Citi index on Bloomberg CTOTKRW <Index>), import volumes may remain strong to ensure supply ahead of the winter months.
  • The value of energy imports is up over 90% in the past year.

Fig 1: South Korea's Trade Deficit At Record Wides


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

  • Export growth was slightly better than expected at +6.6% YoY, versus +5.6% expected. Still, it was a slowdown from the previous month and details weren't that positive though, with chip exports falling (-7.8%), while adjusting for work day differences showed just +2.2% YoY growth compared to August last year.
  • The PMI has also printed for August, slipping down to 47.6, levels last seen back to mid 2020.

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