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Red Or Blue?

US TSYS

T-Notes -0-01+ at 138-08, with the contract happy to stick to a 0-03 range in Asia-Pac hours, ahead of the well-documented round of local event risk, with the lower liquidity backdrop owing to the Japanese holiday and ensuing cash Tsy market closure (until London hours) also limiting activity. The contract drifted to lows into European hours, with e-minis higher vs. settlement, but someway shy of best levels.

  • A reminder that pre-election caution allowed Tsys to trade on the front foot on Monday, although stronger than expected ISM m'fing data helped cap the rally, before the move higher in equities and crude oil saw the space back from best levels of the day. Still the curve flattened as 30s richened by over 4.0bp come the closing bell.
  • Eurodollar futures sit unchanged to +0.5 through the reds, with a 4.0K screen buyer of the 99.375/99.250 put spread seen overnight.
  • The U.S. election headlines the local risk docket today. Focus remains centred on the battleground states. There has been little in the way of meaningful movement re: 'Blue Sweep' pricing in the betting markets (please see our election preview pieces for further colour on the matter), which hovers around a coin toss probability, while Biden remains the clear front runner to take the White House (per betting market and opinion polls)
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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