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Refinery Rates to Remain Elevated Keeps Near Term Crack Soft: OPEC

OIL PRODUCTS

Refinery run rates are expected to remain elevated with current product fundamentals set against the impending seasonal upturn in product consumption, according to OPEC.

  • Global refinery intake increased 490kb/d in May to 80.5mb/d, and up 106kb/d y/y.
  • Refinery margins eased for the third consecutive month in May in all main trading hubs with ample availability after the end of heavy maintenance leading to rising product stock builds.
  • Weakening export margins and strong gasoline imports from the Middle East weighed on Asian product markets.
  • Increased jet fuel demand from increased air travel and fuel oil cooling in the East are expected to support product markets in Rotterdam in the near term.
  • The near term European gasoline crack spread is under downside pressure from rising gasoline production before a pick-up in summer road transport should provide support.
  • Soft NWE gasoil is expected due to weak European manufacturing diesel demand, the refinery maintenance season end, upside potential from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and the Mexican Olmeca refinery amid strong flows from the Middle East.
  • Softening export margins and strong diesel demand from the farming sector could keep Chinese diesel exports under pressure.
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