Refunding Preview: Broad-Based Size Cuts Expected

At 0830ET we get the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, with the press conference webcast at 1000ET. A few sell-side expectations:

• J.P.Morgan expect that Wednesday's quarterly refunding will see the Treasury announce "$48bn 3-Year notes, $37bn 10-Year notes, and $23bn 30-Year bonds, each $2bn less than their last new-issue auction sizes."
• Morgan Stanley expects Treasury to cut "2s and 3s,and 2y FRNS, by $2bn each month for the next three months, but will taper the coupon cut trajectory for 5s, 7s, 10s, 20s,and 30s vs. the cuts in November. We now expect $1bn and $2bn per month cuts in 5s and 7s,and $1bn, $3bn,and $1bn cuts in 10s,20s,and 30s with new issues and re-openings from the February to April issuance. In addition, we do not expect coupon cuts to continue beyond April, unlike our previous base case, where we saw coupon cuts extending through July."
• NatWest sees "$2bn of cuts across 2s, 3s, 5s, 10s, and 30s, as well as $3bn of cuts in 7s. However, we do not think Treasury will reduce the 20s by $4bn, but slow down the pace to $3bn going forward, bringing the February issue size to $20bn."