Region Will Be Watching Venezuela Election Fallout Closely

The febrile political situation surrounding the disputed Venezuelan presidential election will not just be of interest to the hydrocarbons sector assessing the landscape around US sanctions (see 'LATAM: VENEZUELA-Protests Erupt Following Election Rigging Claims' 0905BST). Surrounding countries will be wary of a major escalation in political instability given the risk of a further mass exodus of Venezuelan migrants, which in recent years has posed economic and social challenges in the region. There are unconfirmed reportsthat at least one protester was killed in clashes on 29 July.

• The UNHCR estimates that 7.7mn Venezuelans have left the country in recent years due to economic and political turmoil. Colombia has been the main recipient of these individuals, hosting at least 2.9mn according to UNHCR figures.
• Even the leftist regional allies of President Nicolas Maduro in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are reportedby Bloomberg to be working on a joint statement calling for the release of voting records before the recognise the result.
• The worst-case scenario for bordering nations would be a mass revolutionary movement against Maduro that results in a sustained civil conflict. While very unlikely, given the opposition is a political bloc rather than a militia, Colombia and Brazil will be on alert to the developments in anti-Maduro protests in the coming days.
• Amid a tide of Western and regional criticism, two major world powers have come out strongly on the side of Maduro, with Russia and China both congratulating the incumbent on a fair election win.