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Regional inflation pointing to upside surprise for national print

GERMAN DATA
  • Regional CPI prints are all coming in on the high side. Consensus looks for the national print to come in at 0.5%M/M (7.6%Y/Y).
  • So far we have had NRW at 0.9%M/M, Bavaria at 1.0%M/M and BaWu at 0.9%M/M - all 4-5 tenths above the consensus for the national print, so implies we will see an upside surprise.
  • Note that these aren't produced under the same methodology as HICP (which is the more important print for monpol). However, if we were to see a 4-5 tenth upside surprise in national CPI would normally translate to some kind of upside print for HICP too.
  • Note that Spanish HICP was two tenths above consensus earlier too, and together these prints are fuelling the sell-off in FI.
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